Quantity vs. Quality in Sports Gambling

We have all heard a handicapper or sports gambler boast of their ability to win at a 60% or better clip. Is it possible to win at that percentage over a short period of time? Absolutely. If someone is able to maintain that winning percentage over the course of years – enjoy your riches, and I wish you all the luck in the world. Now the truth. It’s not going to happen – forget it, 60% is nearly impossible over any substantial length of time. 55%, maybe, but anyone who claims a 60% win rate over multiple sports and seasons is simply lying – or they are betting a very small number of games. Don’t give up yet however. Below I will show that winning 54 out of every 100 games (54%) can turn a nice profit.

The example below will examine the attainable profits from different amounts a games wagered and different winning percentages of those games. For the sake of argument

someone could claim that they have hit 60% winners betting on sports the past three years, for example. But if they only bet 10 games a year – 30 total over the three year span – and they win 18 of those, I guess they have the right to claim they can handicap sports at a 60% win rate. Technically correct, but a very weak claim.

Wager size $110

Betting $110 to win $100

60% winning percentage over 30 games

18 winners = $1800

12 losers = $1320

Profit = $480

For someone who claims to pick 60% winners over the past three years, and is betting roughly $100 a game – a $480 profit does not look all that impressive. So much for that impressive 60% winning percentage.

Let us now look at a different example. A guy claims that he has hit a conservative 54% of his games over the past 3 years (52.38% is the break even point). However, over the course of that time he bets roughly 3 games per day on all major sports. His total games bet would be 3285 over that time span. Let’s examine his numbers using the same bet size as the so called 60% bettor.

Wager size $110

Betting $110 to win $100

54% winning percentage over 3285 games

1774 winners = $177400

1511 losers = $166210

Profit = $11,190

You can see from these simple examples that it is important to not only look at winning percentages, but also the number of games wagered and the bet size to realistically analyze potential profits. Be sure to take this into account when analyzing your bets, or when you hear outrageous claims of 60% or better winning percentage over a long period of time.

Good luck with your wagers, and I wish you the best of luck this year!

Billy Walters – The Warren Buffett of Sports Betting Markets

Vegas used to be filled with rumours of a man or group of men – nobody really knew the specifics – that was said to be feared by Vegas bookmakers. This team beat the spread in sporting events as a matter of course, and were wealthy beyond comprehension as a result. In the world of sports gambling, these guys had discovered the Holy Grail. They mystery that surrounded these mystery men made them the whole story so much more intriguing.

That was, until the mystery man was unmasked as Billy Walters, a lifelong gambler and successful investor – and a very wealthy one at that.

Walters’ operation was first disclosed in a book called “The Smart Money” – By Michael Konik. In the book a pseudonym was used for Walters, and the author accounts his experiences running money around Vegas for Walters, betting with the aid of cell phones and walkie talkies, and subsequently getting banned when the sportsbooks discover that the teams and games he is betting are a bit fishy. Understandable, when these games are the hottest syndicate games bet all around Vegas by Walters and his teams of “runners”.

Walters was further introduced to the non-betting public through a story on 60 minutes in January 2011. It is a fascinating interview for both betting and non-betting types, as Walters is a charismatic, raskal type, and 60 minutes do a fantastic job of educating the lay-person in what sportsbetting is and how Walters and his team make money from it.

For sportsbetting fans, this interview is riveting. The seriousness with which Walters and his team attacks sports wagering is impressive and it is clear that huge amounts of money are at stake. Walters moves on his sports teams like a hedge-fund trader moves on a stock at the open of a day’s trading – betting to the house limit when he finds an attractive proposition. The team assembled around this betting operation is vast, runners have codenames and large cash on hand to bet in person at the sportsbook window, and Walters monitors all of these bets and amounts on a computer set-up that has all too many similarities to a hedge-fund manager or a stockbroker at the New York Stock Exchange.

Interestingly, Walters claims that Wall Street types have more to hide and are bigger thieves that those people that he has run into in the gambling world.

Walters was rather secretive about the individuals he has working with him. He claimed to not know the real name of his runners – that may indeed be the case – but he was particularly elusive about the advisors and “brains” behind his brains trust. One individual in particular was a ‘rain-man’ type of intellectual who has an encyclopedic knowledge of college teams and players. Walters reports that this man possessed a brilliant ability to forecast games because of this.

Betting men and women would be well served by watching the interview with Walters, and reading Michael Konik’s “Smart Money”, should they wish to know more about this fascinating character.

Betting Underground – Review of Their Sports Betting eBook System

So, there’s a brand spanking new sports betting eBook system out on the market these days called Betting Underground. Sports gambling has become insanely popular over the Internet, despite it being illegal in certain countries. Any sports fan can literally sit in their pajamas, log on to their favorite online bookie like Betfair, and begin placing their bets. So, how can “Betting Underground” help?

What’s Revealed In Their Sports Betting eBook System

Basically, this system claims to reveal a lot of secrets as it relates to sports gambling. While most bettors go on to play by the rules, there are the professional gamblers who have beat the bookies. The developers of the system stumbled across some very valuable strategies and methods that had been used by expert bettors for years. As they tested the strategies and saw the winning results come rolling in, they system was born and now released to the general public.

Betting Underground’s Main Characteristics

The system includes methods so versatile that anyone can apply the system to betting on almost any sport. There are some great fast winning blueprints that bettors can apply to begin experiencing immediate winnings so they can start growing their betting fund and expanding from there.

How It Compares To Other Systems

There are other sports gambling systems such as Sports Betting Champ and Sports Betting Professor that have worked very well for many enthusiastic bettors, however, those systems limit their usages to just three main sports: basketball, football, and baseball. Betting Underground can be applied to horse racing, cricket, hockey, soccer, you name it. As an additional advantage, the other systems cost at least $200 to access! Wouldn’t you rather save that money for your betting funds? I think so.

An Added Bonus To The Betting Underground System

Betting Undergroud is currently giving away a completely free betting guide as part of its launch. No other sports betting eBook system has done this and they still charge hundreds of dough for their system.

Getting an Edge in Sports Betting: Contrarian Sports Investing

Many people enjoy sports, and sports fans often enjoy placing wagers on the outcomes of sporting events. Most casual sports bettors lose money over time, creating a bad name for the sports betting industry. But what if we could “even the playing field?”

If we transform sports betting into a more business-like and professional endeavor, there is a higher likelihood that we can make the case for sports betting as an investment.

The Sports Marketplace as an Asset Class

How can we make the jump from gambling to investing? Working with a team of analysts, economists, and Wall Street professionals – we often toss the phrase “sports investing” around. But what makes something an “asset class?”

An asset class is often described as an investment with a marketplace – that has an inherent return. The sports betting world clearly has a marketplace – but what about a source of returns?

For instance, investors earn interest on bonds in exchange for lending money. Stockholders earn long-term returns by owning a portion of a company. Some economists say that “sports investors” have a built-in inherent return in the form of “risk transfer.” That is, sports investors can earn returns by helping provide liquidity and transferring risk amongst other sports marketplace participants (such as the betting public and sportsbooks).

Sports Investing Indicators

We can take this investing analogy a step further by studying the sports betting “marketplace.” Just like more traditional assets such as stocks and bonds are based on price, dividend yield, and interest rates – the sports marketplace “price” is based on point spreads or money line odds. These lines and odds change over time, just like stock prices rise and fall.

To further our goal of making sports gambling a more business-like endeavor, and to study the sports marketplace further, we collect several additional indicators. In particular, we collect public “betting percentages” to study “money flows” and sports marketplace activity. In addition, just as the financial headlines shout, “Stocks rally on heavy volume,” we also track the volume of betting activity in the sports gambling market.

Sports Marketplace Participants

Earlier, we discussed “risk transfer” and the sports marketplace participants. In the sports betting world, the sportsbooks serve a similar purpose as the investing world’s brokers and market-makers. They also sometimes act in manner similar to institutional investors.

In the investing world, the general public is known as the “small investor.” Similarly, the general public often makes small bets in the sports marketplace. The small bettor often bets with their heart, roots for their favorite teams, and has certain tendencies that can be exploited by other market participants.

“Sports investors” are participants who take on a similar role as a market-maker or institutional investor. Sports investors use a business-like approach to profit from sports betting. In effect, they take on a risk transfer role and are able to capture the inherent returns of the sports betting industry.

Contrarian Methods

How can we capture the inherent returns of the sports market? One method is to use a contrarian approach and bet against the public to capture value. This is one reason why we collect and study “betting percentages” from several major online sports books. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of the market action – and carve out the performance of the “general public.”

This, combined with point spread movement, and the “volume” of betting activity can give us an idea of what various participants are doing. Our research shows that the public, or “small bettors” – typically underperform in the sports betting industry. This, in turn, allows us to systematically capture value by using sports investing methods. Our goal is to apply a systematic and academic approach to the sports betting industry.